Welcome to 4th & Sim!

Run full simulations, call plays, and rank teams. Built for strategy lovers and stat-heads alike.

4th & Sim is a football simulation and analytics platform built around expected points, team strategy, and dynamic decision-making. It blends real NFL data with interactive game flow, allowing users to simulate drives, visualize field position value, and explore strategic outcomes. TLDR? It's about accuracy and flexibility.

These NFL rankings below are powered by unbiased deep tree search algorithms written in C++ which use play by play data from nflfastR, allowing precise and powerful measurements of offensive and defensive performance. And this is just the beginning of what the engine can do.

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2024 Rankings

Total Ranking

1. DET: 0.82
2. BAL: 0.63
3. MIN: 0.60
4. TB: 0.52
5. LAC: 0.48
6. BUF: 0.47
7. PHI: 0.45
8. WAS: 0.32
9. GB: 0.30
10. CIN: 0.24
11. DEN: 0.22
12. KC: 0.11
13. LAR: 0.09
14. HOU: 0.08
15. NYJ: -0.08
16. PIT: -0.11
17. CHI: -0.14
18. SF: -0.19
19. IND: -0.20
20. ARI: -0.26
21. LV: -0.26
22. NO: -0.27
23. SEA: -0.27
24. ATL: -0.28
25. DAL: -0.33
26. MIA: -0.39
27. CAR: -0.53
28. NE: -0.54
29. TEN: -0.54
30. JAX: -0.62
31. NYG: -0.79
32. CLE: -0.80

Offense Ranking

1. DET: 2.93
2. BAL: 2.88
3. TB: 2.81
4. CIN: 2.76
5. BUF: 2.57
6. ARI: 2.45
7. MIN: 2.43
8. LAC: 2.42
9. LAR: 2.40
10. WAS: 2.35
11. GB: 2.34
12. SF: 2.34
13. PHI: 2.33
14. ATL: 2.32
15. KC: 2.29
16. CAR: 2.27
17. JAX: 2.17
18. PIT: 2.17
19. SEA: 2.15
20. HOU: 2.14
21. NYJ: 2.13
22. MIA: 2.09
23. DEN: 2.08
24. NE: 2.03
25. DAL: 2.02
26. CHI: 2.01
27. LV: 1.99
28. NO: 1.92
29. IND: 1.83
30. TEN: 1.77
31. NYG: 1.76
32. CLE: 1.50

Defense Ranking

1. MIN: 1.83
2. DEN: 1.86
3. PHI: 1.88
4. LAC: 1.94
5. IND: 2.03
6. WAS: 2.03
7. GB: 2.04
8. HOU: 2.06
9. BUF: 2.10
10. DET: 2.11
11. CHI: 2.15
12. KC: 2.18
13. NO: 2.19
14. NYJ: 2.21
15. BAL: 2.25
16. LV: 2.25
17. PIT: 2.28
18. TB: 2.29
19. CLE: 2.30
20. LAR: 2.31
21. TEN: 2.31
22. DAL: 2.35
23. SEA: 2.42
24. MIA: 2.48
25. CIN: 2.52
26. SF: 2.53
27. NYG: 2.55
28. NE: 2.57
29. ATL: 2.60
30. ARI: 2.71
31. JAX: 2.79
32. CAR: 2.80

From team rankings to real-time strategy, 4th & Sim offers a full suite of tools for NFL analysis and simulation. You can rank every team’s offense and defense, track how they’ve evolved over the years, and visualize their expected points across every field position. Dive into coaching decisions and evaluate strategies under different scenarios. Simulate up to 50 games between any two teams—or take control yourself and play full games against other teams and an AI model. Whether you're exploring timelines, testing game theory, or just playing around, there's always more to discover. Hit the Deep Dive to learn how it works or About Me to get in touch.